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Monday, September 10, 2007

By now you'll have heard that Gen. David Petraeus, in typically disingenuous testimony to Congress, announced immediately that under his leadership the military objectives of the "surge" are being met and coalition forces "have achieved progress in the security arena". He then bolstered this nonsense with a series of outlandish lies.

It's worth reprising a point I made in June in a post that, I regret, did not attract much attention: "Progress in Iraq". In it I showed that the phrase "progress in Iraq" has been a constant rhetorical trope going all the way back to the very beginning of the Bush administration's excuse-mongering about the disastrous occupation. Bush & Co. did not turn to fictional "progress" after other excuses had failed to convince. "Progress" has been their constant companion, as they have tried to explain away or deny all the unpleasant facts that are in front of our eyes.

From the outset "progress" was most definitely an excuse, nothing more. For over two months after declaring victory in Iraq, as I showed, Bush avoided acknowledging in public the burgeoning Iraqi insurgency. In late June 2003 he finally was forced to discuss it—in a radio address that emphasized the "progress in Iraq" being made. It immediately became Bush & Co.'s favorite catch-phrase for the (failure of the) occupation. And it remains ever thus.

So Gen. Petraeus ignores the nearly two dozen American casualties today and instead invokes "progress". Gen. Petraeus ignores the vast majority of Iraqis who believe that security has worsened under the "surge", and instead invokes "progress". Gen. Petraeus ignores the crumbling of the Iraqi government, and instead invokes "progress". Gen. Petraeus ignores the perilous state of the American armed forces, and instead invokes "progress".

For some measure of the rank dishonesty of this shameless mouthpiece for the administration, consider that Gen. Petraeus has the audacity to claim in his opening remarks today that the murders of civilians are down, that the ethno-sectarian violence is down, that the number of "security incidents" (?) is at its lowest level since June of 2006.

The facts don't concur.

If there has been a drop in certain kinds of violence during the last few weeks, that is only because of the stifling heat which each summer tends to depress, briefly, the level of violence. The attacks and deaths each month this summer are at the highest levels ever experienced in Iraq during those months. An very basic point. But you will look in vain in Petraeus' testimony for any mention of it.

You also will not find him discussing another basic point that I've made over and over again: The ethnic/sectarian cleansing of Baghdad has picked up pace and advanced so far, under Petraeus' nose during this "surge", that Sunnis have been driven out of large parts of the city. No wonder, then, with some 35,000 fleeing the city in the last few months alone, that sectarian murders and bombings in Baghdad have stabilized.

You may recall that in January, inserting himself once again into partisan politics, Gen. Petraeus stated that the Democrats' proposal for withdrawal from Iraq would bring disaster:

Petraeus warned of incalculable dangers of any rapid U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, as favored by many congressional Democrats, saying it would lead to intensified terrorist inroads, "ethnic cleansing" and a bloodbath in Baghdad.

Decidedly ironic, then, that his own command in Iraq has witnessed (many Iraqis would say abetted) the decisive stages of the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad.

Little wonder that Americans distrust Petraeus nearly as much as Iraqis.

Update: Here are two clear examples of Gen. Petraeus caught in outright lies today.

First, examine the third of the slides he presented to Congress (on page 4 of this PDF). It presents four maps of "ethno-sectarian violence" in the neighborhoods of Baghdad since December 2006. These maps pretend that the ethnic/sectarian mix of various neighborhoods has remained constant during this period. In fact, as I've commented here and elsewhere, the Sunnis have been driven headlong out of many neighborhoods since December 2006. Despite the map, there are no longer either majority Sunni or mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods east of the Tigris. And west of the Tigris, Sunni-dominated areas have shrunk considerably.

The maps falsify one of the most delicate of issues: The failure of the "surge" to stem ethnic/sectarian cleansing of Baghdad. If that information were brought to the fore, it would call into question the claims by Petraeus and other spokespeople for the Bush administration that the "surge" is responsible for an alleged drop in violence in Baghdad. If there is any such drop, it may be due in large part to the success of Shia attempts to drive Sunnis from their homes and into exile.

Secondly, Think Progress had the goods on another of Petraeus' lies. The General told Congress today that before the "surge" nobody could have predicted its success in transforming Anbar Province.

...our experience in Iraq has repeatedly shown that projecting too far into the future is not just difficult, it can be misleading and even hazardous. The events of the past six months underscore that point. When I testified in January, for example, no one would have dared to forecast that Anbar Province would have been transformed the way it has in the past 6 months.

The trouble is that when Petraeus testified to the Senate in January, he stated that the transformation in Anbar was already underway:

You’ve seen it, I know, in Anbar province, where it has sort of gone back and forth. And right now there appears to be a trend in the positive direction where sheikhs are stepping up and they do want to be affiliated with and supported by the U.S. Marines and Army forces who are in Anbar province. That was not the case as little as perhaps six months ago, or certainly before that.

So in January, Petraeus used the evidence of the shift in Sunni alliances to call for Congress to support a "surge". In September, Petraeus uses that evidence to claim success for the "surge".

"Shameless" may have been too kind.

Second update (Tuesday): I see that McClatchy's report on the Petraeus testimony has picked up the point I made here:

A chart displayed by Army Gen. David Petraeus that purported to show the decline in sectarian violence in Baghdad between December and August made no effort to show that the ethnic character of many of the neighborhoods had changed in that same period from majority Sunni Muslim or mixed to majority Shiite Muslim.

Neither Petraeus nor U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker talked about the fact that since the troop surge began the pace by which Iraqis were abandoning their homes in search of safety had increased. They didn't mention that 86 percent of Iraqis who've fled their homes said they'd been targeted because of their sect, according to the International Organization for Migration...

Petraeus presented a series of maps to show how sectarian violence had dropped in Baghdad from December 2006 to August 2007. But all of the maps showed the same color-coding for Sunni, Shiite and mixed neighborhoods, even though the ethnicity of many neighborhoods have shifted dramatically over the previous year. U.S. military officials say that Baghdad was once 65 percent Sunni and is now 75 percent Shiite.

The report makes several other excellent points. In general, the questions Petraeus failed to address were more important than what he did say.

Comments

10 comments

[1]
I highly recommend seeing the video of War Made Easy. It shows this trajectory that America is on - over and over - to go to war and to stay at war - even when the public demands peace.

You can find a good synopsis here.
http://www.warmadeeasythemo...

The video clip at the website will give you a small sense of this, but the video as a whole makes the case powerfully and clearly.
http://www.warmadeeasythemo...

Bill Fletcher is now advocating stepping up the public campaign for peace.
http://www.blackcommentator...

Posted by shirah at Monday, September 10, 2007 17:05:07

[2]
Fact checking Petraeus from Senate Majority Leader. Reid's office:

http://reid.senate.gov/news...

Fact checking Petraeus from Speaker Pelosi's office:

http://www.speaker.gov/blog...

Posted by em dash at Monday, September 10, 2007 21:13:12

[3]
Here is a report in the latest Newsweek on the extent and significance of sectarian cleansing in Baghdad during the "surge":

>>>When Gen. David Petraeus goes before Congress next week to report on the progress of the surge, he may cite a decline in insurgent attacks in Baghdad as one marker of success. In fact, part of the reason behind the decline is how far the Shiite militias' cleansing of Baghdad has progressed: they've essentially won. "If you look at pre-February 2006, there were only a couple of areas in the city that were unambiguously Shia," says a U.S. official in Baghdad who is familiar with the issue but is not authorized to speak on the record. "That's definitely not the case anymore." The official says that "the majority, more than half" of Baghdad's neighborhoods are now Shiite-dominated, a judgment echoed in the most recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq: "And very few are mixed." In places like Amel, pockets of Sunnis live in fear, surrounded by a sea of Shiites. In most of the remaining Sunni neighborhoods, residents are trapped behind great concrete barricades for their own protection...

Shiites present their creeping takeover of Baghdad as part of a narrative of liberation—American officers have dubbed it Shiite "Manifest Destiny."<<<

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id...

Posted by smintheus at Monday, September 10, 2007 22:54:50

[4]
When I saw those maps I couldn`t believe the difference with very similar maps in the Jones rapport. It looks like they used a new classification for the colors representing the relative ethnicity of a neighborhood.

before:
http://thinkprogress.org/20...
<img src="http://thinkprogress.org/wp...">

After:
http://www.talkingpointsmem...&
<img src="http://talkingpointsmemo.co...">

Maybe people can get just as upset over seeing that as the photoshopped smoke over Beirut. Or maybe noone gets that that those shifts in color represent loads of desperate refugee families and morgues filled with people with acid burns and electric drill holes that have spend halve a night rotting on a street corner. Or maybe someone needs some lessons about the hypocrisy of being tough on others for denying a genocide...

And if people (say thinkprogress) point out something nasty showing up in statistics, then the last thing you would want to do is change the statistics in response...

Anyway, has anyone found out if there is anything to the WaPo claim that 2006 early 07 deaths are rising with recent DoD reports? That would be a bold way of making 07 look positive!

Posted by ert at Tuesday, September 11, 2007 04:53:27

[5]
ert, You're right, the falsifying maps are part of a broader pattern of deception with Pentagon reports in which it keeps changing the metrics. Without explanation, baselines for measurements are altered; or the units of measurement are changed; or the things measured are shifted; or the classifications are shifted to exclude some of the evidence. And when particular aspects of life in Iraq get especially ugly, the Pentagon just stops measuring it. We've been discussing these problems off and on at unbossed regarding Pentagon quarterly reports, which beg to be dissected carefully.

We also see (as you say) that the Pentagon apparently is revising old tallies of violence upward so as to make the current violence look less bad.

Shorter version: Nothing the Pentagon says about Iraq can be trusted. Those who propose to trust the Pentagon's "evidence" are the ones who need to explain themselves, rather than those of us who make the logical deduction from the Pentagon's history of deception and refuse to credit their claims.

Posted by smintheus at Tuesday, September 11, 2007 07:49:48

[6]
The McClatchy article, posted Monday evening, does not mention that it was unbossed.com that first drew attention to the falsification behind Petraeus' maps of the sectarian mix of Baghdad's neighborhoods.

Posted by smintheus at Tuesday, September 11, 2007 08:31:34

[7]
And not just unbossed, but smintheus of unbossed. This has happened on other stories, e.g., IAP and its KBR roots. But we're in it for truth, justice, and the American way, and not glory. Heck, here we don't even get mojo or recs.

But smintheus, here is one big atta boy!

Posted by shirah at Tuesday, September 11, 2007 12:53:21

[8]
Thanks, shirah. Wouldn't mind getting credit more often for the stories we break (never did get credit for breaking the news that Cheney had endorsed water-boarding, either).

I'd be a lot happier, though, if journalists would run with this story. What excuse does Petraeus have for presenting to Congress a grossly misleading slide? Especially when he's refusing to release the actual statistics, and instead just presenting pretty pictures?

Posted by smintheus at Tuesday, September 11, 2007 13:27:41

[9]
On a right-wing blog (which I won't link to because they don't deserve attention), a resident chicken-hawk denounced this post as an example of hating-the-troops and disrespecting-glorious-General-Petraeus.

So for what it is worth, here is how General Petraeus' commanding officer allegedly described Petraeus to his face.

>>>In sharp contrast to the lionisation of Gen. David Petraeus by members of the U.S. Congress during his testimony this week, Petraeus's superior, Admiral William Fallon, chief of the Central Command (CENTCOM), derided Petraeus as a sycophant during their first meeting in Baghdad last March, according to Pentagon sources familiar with reports of the meeting.

Fallon told Petraeus that he considered him to be "an ass-kissing little chickenshit" and added, "I hate people like that", the sources say. That remark reportedly came after Petraeus began the meeting by making remarks that Fallon interpreted as trying to ingratiate himself with a superior.<<<

http://www.ipsnews.net/news...

Petraeus, as you no doubt recall, began shilling for Bush's surge even while the details remained sketchy. Like many, I believed Petraeus was buttering his own toast. Fallon, evidently, thought so too.

>>>In a highly unusual political role for an officer who had not yet taken command of a war, Petraeus was installed in the office of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, in early February just before the Senate debated Bush's troop increase. According to a report in The Washington Post Feb. 7, senators were then approached on the floor and invited to go McConnell's office to hear Petraeus make the case for the surge policy.

Fallon was strongly opposed to Petraeus's role as pitch man for the surge policy in Iraq adopted by Bush in December as putting his own interests ahead of a sound military posture in the Middle East and Southwest Asia -- the area for which Fallon's CENTCOM is responsible.<<<

Posted by smintheus at Wednesday, September 12, 2007 19:41:21

[10]
The falsification of maps by Petraeus is slowly making its way through blogs, though only a few (such as Cernig at Newshoggers) have given credit to unbossed for the discovery.

http://cernigsnewshog.blogs...

To his credit, Matthew Yglesias picked up the story from elsewhere and then gave us a hat tip:

http://matthewyglesias.thea...

Cheers, Cernig and Matt.

Posted by smintheus at Friday, September 14, 2007 07:54:29

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